Election 2014 Buzz: will second time be the charm for legalization in Oregon?

As some may recall (and some may not), in 2012 Oregon had marijuana legalization on its ballot along with Colorado and Washington.  But, unlike in those other states, serious people seriously interested in marijuana reform were not serious backing the reform efforts in the Beaver state back in 2012.  But this election season, lots of serious folks are seriously invested in Oregon’s revised initiative to follow Colorado and Washington into the legalization experiment.  And, as highlighted by this article, headlined “This State Will Legalize Marijuana Tuesday — If Young People Show Up to Vote,” whether Oregon follows its neighbors will depend a lot of who gets around to voting:

Two opposing polls out of Oregon are making one thing very clear: If young people get out and vote on Election Day, the ballot initiative to legalize marijuana in the state will pass.

The more recent survey, conducted by the Oregonian and KGW, found that 46% of respondents opposed Measure 91 — which would allow adults to grow, hold and, for licensed individuals, sell weed — giving them a small lead over supporters, who clocked in at 44%. Support is strongest among younger voters — 56% of voters aged 18 to 34 express support for legalization, compared with 39% of those aged 65 and over. The result will depend on whether those younger voters actually show up to the polls….

“Support goes down as age goes up,” said Stuart Elway, the pollster who found just 44% in favor of legalization. DHM Research pollster John Horvick, who set the model for the first survey, agrees, pointing to the initiative’s overwhelming support with younger voters.

“For example, 18- to 34-year-olds, 70% plan to vote for Measure 91 for legalization,” he told Oregon Public Broadcasting. “Sixty-eight percent of independents plan to. Now those are all groups who are the least likely to show up come Election Day. So if the marijuana campaign is able to get those voters out, it looks like it could pass, it’ll be close, a squeaker.”

Two polls, one very similar story. If Oregon is going to legalize marijuana, it will need dedicated young voters to turn out and bring their friends with them.